Friday, June 18, 2010

What is the future for our oceans?

Arctic Ocean

Before the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the impact of climate change on the ocean was of concern to scientists, but that concern has grown even more with the disaster that will only increase problems of the world's principal waters.

Most studies have looked at single effects of climate change.  One scientist, however, examines how human behavior effects various environmental systems.

The serious impact on the ocean is part of a study at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution that just published a report in the journal Science.  It looks at what the future might bring.

“What we do on land—agriculture, fossil fuel combustion and pollution—can have a profound impact on the chemistry of the sea,” says Scott C. Doney, a senior scientist at WHOI and author of the Science report. “A whole range of these factors have been studied in isolation but have not been put in a single venue.”

Doney concludes climate change,as well as  rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, excess nutrient inputs, and the many forms of pollution are “altering fundamentally the…ocean, often on a global scale and, in some cases, at rates greatly exceeding those in the historical and recent geological record.”

A variety of different trends are summarized by this recent research that include how seawater has become more acid, subsurface oxyguen has decreased, nitrogen levels have increased; and there is an increase inse in mercury and other pollutants.

“Human impacts are not isolated to coastal waters,” Doney says. They “are seen around the globe.”

Moreover, he says, “many of these changes in climate and ocean chemistry can compound each other, making the problem considerably worse for marine life.” For example, warming and nutrient runoff both can trigger a decline in oxygen levels off the coast, according to Doney. And acidification, he says, may exacerbate coral bleaching.

These are some of the findings Doney outlines:

* Global ocean pH and chemical saturation states are changing at an “unprecedented” rate, 30 to 100 times faster than temporal changes in the recent geological past, “and the perturbations will last many centuries to millennia.”
* “Ocean acidification will likely reduce shell and skeleton growth by many marine calcifying species, including corals and mollusks.”* “Ocean acidification may also reduce the tolerance of some species to thermal stress…Polar ecosystems may be particularly susceptible…”* Fertilizer runoff and nitrogen from fossil fuels are increasing the severity and duration of coastal hypoxia, or decreased oxygen.




CO2 emissions are of particular consequences as these have increased by almost a third over the last decade.  This has made the earth's future uncertain unless these emissions are significantly reduced, according to scientists.

“Over the last decade, CO2 emissions have continued to climb despite efforts to control emissions,” Doney said. “Preliminary evidence suggests that the land and ocean may be becoming less effective at removing CO2 from the atmosphere, which could accelerate future climate change.”


Add to all of this the uncertainty of the total impact of the oil spill in the Gulf on the ocean's waters, and the future of the Earth may be compromised further, if we are to believe this present research.




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