Arizona stats don't show crime rate up because of immigrants

by Carol Forsloff - The statistics on crime in Arizona during the past 10 years reveal that Arizona Governor Jan Brewer's pronouncements about crime and immigration are false.   What is true about the crime rate in that state?

More than one newspaper columnist has pointed out Governor Brewer's wrong citation of FBI statistics, yet many people continue to believe the earlier statements from the Governor that promoted the law as being a necessity because of a high crime rate. Use some other reason, some people say, like jobs or the cost of social welfare programs, but crime?  Let's be honest, they say, as James Alan Fox underlines in an installment referenced by a legal firm in a recent press release.


Columnist James Alan Fox waded into the debate about crime and immigration, sorting out fact from fiction.  Green Heritage News also had examined the FBI crime statistics used for the Fox column recently and came to those same conclusions. So what does Fox say about these statistics?  What he claims is those numbers say is violent crime has actually decreased since 2000. Afterwards blogger Tom Maguire decided to counter the NY Times writer's argument, stating, "use of statewide figures obscures underlying violent crime increases outside of the large metropolitan areas, especially rural communities near the Mexican border."


Using state statistics from the FBI for the years 2000 and 2008, Maguire claimed that while the violent crime rate dropped in the metropolitan areas, it rose sharply in the rural areas and areas of
alleged illegal immigration concentration. Fox revisited the argument himself and observes that the 2000 rate wasan unusual statistic, a low crime rate as an exception to its usual pattern, so when looking at the range of years from 1999 until 2008, the crime rate in Arizona is relatively flat. Fox also examined population data and says that substantial population drops between 2005 and 2006 clearly indicate some sort of artificial shift in method of the way statistics were reported, so making conclusions around that time might be a problem.  He declares calculations and trends since 2006 would be more accurate.


Are the people of Arizona falling in line with the Governor just because they fall for the incendiary and alarmist views?


The head of an employment services company in Arizona, when asked about the crime rate in Yuma relative to drug trafficking four months ago said, "We really
don't have much crime with the Mexican immigrants here.  We have a great border patrol that communicates well with our police." Later, after the new immigration law had been proposed in Arizona, the same employer said, "We have a high crime rate in Yuma, and we need better enforcement.  I think this law is a good idea.  So do our legal Mexican immigrants on our staff." Did the employer interview the employees?  No, but that was used as justification for the statement that the Mexican employees of the company would agree with the new Arizona law.


Lawyers, public relations experts and psychologists all point to how the lie can obscure the facts when they are given later on. The worry, from some attorney's summations, is that incendiary and false statements can lead to more arrests and charges, as well as violations of constitutional rights.