Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Cane River flooding in Louisiana, weather aberrations and climate change

[caption id="attachment_14782" align="alignleft" width="300"] Natchitoches and Cane River flooding, Norwood "Nick" Jackson photo[/caption]

"I have never seen the Cane River like that before," one Facebook post declares, following the posting of pictures showing the flooding of the Cane River that winds through the countryside through Natchitoches along a route of more than 30 miles.   But while the town's major waterway is creeping over its banks in some areas of the Parish, it is not experiencing the severe emergencies that are occurring in other areas, where people have had to be rescued from torrential rains.

According to Stacy at the Mayor's office in Natchitoches, Louisiana, "We haven't had many calls this morning from people about the flooding.  We have heard of some homes with water, and some streets; but it doesn't seem that we will have too much.  We have had about 8.9 inches of water, according to the reports here.  But other areas have had more."

For Natchitoches folk, the Cane River is the champion of waterways that has helped the town continue to be a focus of tourists and locals alike.  It is the place where the film "Steel Magnolias" was made, and its beauty is extolled by virtually everyone who has visited or lived in the area.

The Cane River was so low over the past few years that boats had difficulty navigating the waters, that eventually had to be closed to travel, especially near the downtown area of Natchitoches.

This year is seeing the Cane River flooding, as drenching rains travel through the areas of the South and mid-sections of the country.    This morning the National Weather Service announced a flash flood emergency as water from the river entered homes near the city of Natchitoches.  But it is not like areas of Texas and Oklahoma where people have been stranded in their homes and weather emergencies declared.  This follows a season of severe weather that caused tornadoes around many parts of the United States during the winter season of the past year.

Are these examples of weather aberrations?  There are mixed reviews by weather experts and scientists alike.  Some say the warmer, wetter weather reveals the fluctuations of conditions that signal the changes in the earth's climate.  Ken Trenberth, climatologist and former head of the National Center for Atmosphere Research strongly declares: “It is irresponsible not to mention climate change in stories that presume to say something about why all these storms and tornadoes are happening.”   Trenberth recently clarified some of the context of the quote:

"What we can say with confidence is that heavy and extreme precipitation events often associated with thunderstorms and convection are increasing and have been linked to human-induced changes in atmospheric composition."