 |
| Communication device for social media contacts |
Editor--Can we tell the future by watching and reading Facebook or Twitter? Some folks believe we can and that in doing so we can create better avenues for dealing with problems by knowing each other, our wants and needs better. But how does this happen?
Facebook, Twitter and other social media channels tend to record our moves, our likes and dislikes and our online behavior. Internet research tells us that social media is a tool to help better comprehend and anticipate human behavior.
"It is undeniable that social media (provides) an extremely rich source of information, and it makes sense to exploit that data to make predictions or forecast future trends of offline phenomena," says Daniel Gayo-Avello, who is among the guest editors for the current issue of Internet Research. "There are also measurable differences in the way that credible and non-credible (social media) messages spread. Special measures can be used to filter out those messages that are not trustworthy."
Gayo-Avello goes on to say that statistical methods combined with social media data can help build predictions models.says the studies also suggest that using statistical methods, in which external (but scarce) data is combined with social media data to build a predictive model, can be a promising approach.
"Up to now, a number of different scenarios-such as (those related to) the economy, politics, health or event detection-have been studied with varied results. For instance, prediction of flu and other epidemic outbreaks seem to be reasonably predictable on the basis of user-generated content," says Gayo-Avello. "Social media can be used to at least predict the present. It can be used as a proxy measure for variables that cannot be measured in real time on a general basis, such as unemployment rates or public opinions on a number of issues."
Bill Balderaz, president of Fathom Columbus, notes his company uses social media to predict certain outcomes, including the most recent presidential elections. They correctly predicted who would win.
"Social media is the largest, fastest and most uninhibited focus group ever created. (The Internet Research studies) demonstrate that knowing how consumers feel is a predictor of how they will behave," says Balderaz, who's confident his firm can accurately predict everything from stock prices to climate change based on social media conversations.
"It's not as hard as you would think," says Balderaz. "We use historical data correlations to predict the future. We analyze social media patterns going back years, then we correlate social media conversations with real events."
So it is possible to predict the future using trends on social media. So while participants wonder how their personal information and habits are used, perhaps some of it will end up with good intentions, like predicting an epidemic enough in advance that people can get medicines and help in time.
