Thursday, September 23, 2010

The oracle of New Orleans and new software predict disastrous floodingpotential

Judith Martin and Carol Forsloff - Gris-Gris Mama is part of the mythology of New Orleans, part real and part surreal with respect to the city's woes; and the bearer of good and bad tidings gives us this observation.

Levee officials want the corps to rethinks its decision to forgo painting sheet pilings with a corrosion retardant and instead use oversized steel to build 23 miles of floodwalls in St. Bernard Parish.



Here in the residential corridor above I-610, the saying goes "When, not if, the levees fail again, no one is going to come back." Our prayer is that these failures do not happen within our lifetimes, meaning as long as we current

residents choose to remain to live in the homes we have now."


In the meantime, across the globe, because of global warming scientists tell us, flooding is becoming more and more commonplace and bringing with it serious devastation.  

But there is advancement in flood predictions.  Software that can predict flooding can be helpful in the planning for people and property. With advanced warning lives can be saved and property protected.

In the UK flooding causes an annual damage of about 1.5 billion, which is expected to increase to 3.5 billion in the next few years. Flooding is a widespread and devastating natural disaster across the globe. In China during the past 10 years flooding has been of special consequence, and among the worst times in record in terms of human and economic losses. Establishing a means to predict the problem can be invaluable. A project at King's College London led by Dr Hannah Cloke and Dr Yi He from the Department of Geography is anticipated to be the solution to prediction of floods. Hannah Cloke says:
"The new system will satisfy many unmet technological demands in the field of flood prediction and risk analysis, and will bring significant benefits and commercial value to the private and public sector in addition to the many lives we hope it will save! We have already received significant interest from industries and governments, and are excited to take the project to the next level with the development of a commercial prototype."


Other software systems previously developed didn’t do a number of specific things, according to experts, like the following: They often fail to

“ (1) incorporate multiple weather forecasts and post-forecast data processing into one system to achieve reliable flood warning, (2) assess uncertainty and risk of an ensemble forecasts and (3) provide Application Programming Interface (API) Web services with interactive flood risk mapping. The utility and feasibility as well as the commercial potentials has already been demonstrated both in the UK and in China, tests that were supported by the Natural Environment.


Floods are particularly devastating. Around the globe there are numerous reports of what has happened or is scheduled to happen. Reuters reports Botswana has experienced abnormally heavy rains. More are expected. The Red Cross declares nearly 4,000 people were displaced last year year by floods that have been among the worst ever seen. 



In the United States in March 2009 the State of North Dakota was particularly hit hard by flooding, with whole regions of the State declared disaster areas. Communities were shown sandbagging as the waters rose abruptly and critically over many areas. In late May 2009  Brazil was reported to be experiencing severe flooding. 260,000 people were evacuated from their homes in the northeastern part of the country. 



The Midwest experienced severe floods both in 2009 and 2010, with the worst in Tennessee earlier this year, when levees were breeched around Nashville. 



 New Zealand has experienced severe flooding; in fact flooding is one of its most severe hazards. Terrible floods occurred in South Wales, Australia in April 2009.  Pakistan has had flooding that has displaced millions of people. 

Forecasters say what is happening now is just the beginning. The above is just a glimpse of some of the places that have flooded recently or flooding now. Given these risks continuing, having a software program to detect these occurrences would help emergency personnel get in place while individuals and businesses could go about making early preparations and taking precautions. 



New Orleans, still widely regarded as vulnerable since Hurricane Katrina, stands as a symbol of the U.S. problems that remain a concern to people many years later.



Gris-Gris Mama, the oracle - avatar representing one of New Orleans cities, worries and wonders about the city's deep hurts and whether she can bear the pain again.

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