Saturday, December 27, 2014

Risks to eco-systems, 2015 world climate, need international cooperation now

greenland
Arctic areas that are rapidly changing
Editor — The Arctic Report Card 2012 given by the World Meteorological Organization reveals weather changes during 2012 that highlighted events that have been record-setting and predictive of worse climate change situations in the future.  But the future is here now, scientists say, so the need for international cooperation regarding climate change issues is now.

“Multiple observations provide strong evidence of widespread, sustained changes driving the Arctic environmental system into a new state,” writes the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and international partners (AMAP, CAFF, ARCUS).

The organization went on to describe what some of these observations have revealed that include: changes in the sea ice cover, snow cover, glaciers and Greenland ice sheet, which scientists tell us reduces the overall surface reflectivity, as darker surfaces are replacing bright, white surfaces that reflect summer sunlight. The consequence of these conditions, which increases the capacity to store heat, is more melting of the ice, as observed in the Arctic regions.

“Thus, we arrive at the conclusion that it is very likely that major changes will continue to occur in the Arctic in years to come, particularly in the face of projections that indicate continued global warming,” it said.

The major issue facing the world as a result are changes in the marine environment which can impact the world's food web.

Highlights of the Report Card include presented for 2012 include the following:
• Record low snow extent and low sea ice extent in June and September respectively;

• Increasing growing season length, tundra greenness, and above-ground biomass. Below the tundra, record-high permafrost temperatures in northernmost Alaska;

• Longest observed duration of melting on the Greenland ice sheet, with a rare, nearly ice sheet-wide melt event in July.

Scientific American within recent years reviewed the consequences of weather change specific to the United States, pointing out how the extreme weather events, like Hurricane Sandy, have left scientists discussing how frequently these conditions can occur and how the country may be facing similar problems in the future. It is difficult, scientists tell us, to attribute a single event to global warming; however, the patterns of ice melting and the totality of problems throughout the world raise serious concerns. Most scientists agree what we are seeing can be attributed both to natural fluctuations in environmental conditions and man-made ones. The politicians often cite one or the other as being primary to the problem of extreme weather events, but the tendency for climate change to be increasing has many people worried.

In the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers (PDF File), scientists looked at current model simulations, and found, according to Jeffrey Masters, Ph. D, Director of Weather Underground, " it is very likely (90-99% confidence) that the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic Ocean will slow down during the 21st century."  This refers to the deep-water areas around Greenland, the conveyer belt for much of the earth's ocean waters.
It would be disastrous were this "conveyer belt" to be shut down, scientists tell us, although models don't predict this happening soon. But Masters concludes with this telling reminder:  The historical records shows us that abrupt climate change is not only possible--it is the normal state of affairs. The present warm, stable climate is a rare anomaly. It behooves us to learn as much as we can about the climate system so that we may be able to predict when the next abrupt shift in climate will come. Until we know better when this might happen, it would be wise to stop pouring so much carbon dioxide into the air. A nasty surprise might be lurking just around the corner. In the words of Dr. Wally Broecker, "the climate system is an angry beast, and we are poking it."
While the world reels from the concerns about terrorism, in all its forms and from many directions, the issue of climate change, scientists remind us, impacts us all.  It is a global and not a regional concern.

The fact is scientists point to 2015 as potentially a very dangerous time when it comes to extreme weather problems.

In January 2015 the Northeastern and Central portion of the United States has seen ice storms as other areas have been impacted by massive flooding.

A site that calls itself Perfect Science offers some observations about 2015 with respect to serious weather conditions that can put huge sections of the world's population at risk.

Scientists are asking whether or not world leaders will take responsibility and take the necessary steps to further erode conditions that at least offer some protection and to recognize that climate change has man-made aspects.

In December there will be a summit in Paris for leaders to discuss specific steps that can be taken to reduce carbon emissions and other conditions that contribute to the changes in climate.  It might also be a time for leaders to examine what is really important are those concerns that cross international boundaries and affect us all.